The Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) will rise from 427 Mtoe in 2015 to 1,046 Mtoe (BAU), 856 Mtoe (ATS), and 771 Mtoe (APS) in 2040. The increase is driven by the industrial, transportation and residential sectors. These sectors provide opportunities for potential energy savings and efficiency gains. Under the AMS Targets Scenario (ATS) and ASEAN Progressive Scenario (APS), reaching the most recent nationally issued energy efficiency targets lead to substantial savings in TFEC of 18.2% and 26.3% respectively in 2040, as compared to BAU.
The Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) under the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU) is expected to increase by a factor of 2.3 as compared to 2015 levels, reaching 1,450 Mtoe by 2040. Under the AMS Targets Scenario (ATS) and ASEAN Progressive Scenario (APS), the energy efficiency and renewable energy targets lead to savings in TPES of 13.9% and 22.6% respectively in 2040, as compared to BAU.
Under BAU, power capacity in 2040 is projected to increase three-fold to 629 GW to cope with the strongly rising electricity demand. However, enhanced efficiency can lower installed capacity requirements substantially avoiding additional capacity requirements of 42 GW under ATS and 50 GW under APS.
The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook shows that ASEAN is well-placed to reach the target of reducing the energy intensity (EI). The medium term (2020) component is reached in all scenarios, exceeding the target by 5% in BAU, 8% in ATS and 9% in APS. In the long-term (2025) component, EI is reduced by 29% in 2025 in BAU, thereby missing the target with a gap of 1%. However, it exceeds by 5% and 8% in ATS and APS, respectively.
Increasing the target of RE to 23% by 2025 in the primary energy mix will require stronger efforts by AMS than currently foreseen. The BAU scenario projects a share of 13% renewable energy in the primary energy mix, ATS reaches 17.5%, while APS (by conception) reaches the 23% share by 2025.
During the outlook period, ASEAN as a region remains a net exporter of coal, mostly attributed to Indonesia and Vietnam. Reaching EE and RE targets in ATS and APS leads to substantially reduced domestic demand, making more coal available for exports.
Total CO2 emissions from the energy sector (i.e. excluding land use changes) will increase in the years ahead, from 1,446 Mt CO2eq in 2015 to reach 3,460 Mt CO2eq in BAU by 2040. APS is expected to limit the growth to only 2,168 Mt CO2eq in 2040.