Scenario Building

© Fraunhofer ISI
Scenario Process with Debiasing Measures

Working with scenarios is a central foresight methodology with a longstanding tradition.

Our scenario method draws on more than 20 years of experience, encompassing the development and analysis of scenarios while combining system analysis with dialog-based and participatory workshop formats. The objective is to enhance our ability to navigate uncertainty and foster a shared understanding of the future landscape with all stakeholders. Scenarios support decision-making processes for robust present-day strategies.

Key steps in the scenario processes include:

  • Identifying the most critical influencing factors in the subject area.
  • Developing plausible future assumptions for these influencing factors.
  • Reflecting on the future assumptions and their interconnections in terms of consistency and causal relationships.
  • Facilitating constructive, cooperative, and structured discussions to introduce new perspectives on the future.

We consider a scientific foundation for the development and analysis of scenarios as essential for their plausibility and robustness. Furthermore, we have augmented our scenario methodology with a Debiasing approach to specifically address individual and group-specific perception filters regarding future expectations.

Each scenario process is collaboratively designed with the client, tailored to the specific question and contextual factors. Every process encompasses three fundamental phases: opening up the possibility space, developing the scenarios, and ultimately utilizing the scenarios in strategy development. Specific Debiasing approaches are applied in each step.