Future Analysis BWI 20X0

The Foresight Project BWI 20X0 was scientifically guided by the Fraunhofer ISI. It involved the Bundeswehr, various BWI-internal knowledge carriers as well as external experts. The first foresight iteration was conducted over a two-year period. The design of the environmental scenarios was based on the scenarios of the Bundeswehr, also dealing as groundwork for the inward-oriented part of the analysis. The six scenarios that form the core of the foresight analysis cover a broad range of possible developments:

  • Digital Gold Rush – Europe, a Model of Success
  • Democracy & Community – Digitalisation with a Sense of Proportion
  • Muddling Through – Minimal Compromises Out of Necessity
  • Bloc Formation – Geopolitical, Technological and Social Division
  • Multipolar World – Dominance of the Technology Giants
  • Crises and Multiple Threats – The Digital Step Backwards

On this basis, a simplified business canvas was used to assess what these scenarios could imply for the BWI, what the BWI could potentially look like in different futures and what course needs to be set today.

Please click here for the summary: RedBook_BWI20X0.pdf



© BMI GmbH, Illustrator: Thomas Andrae


07/2020 – 03/2022