Future Analysis BWI 20X0

BWI is the digitisation partner and IT system provider of the Bundeswehr. It was founded in 2006 by the Federal Ministry of Defence (BMVg), IBM and Siemens and is the largest public-private partnership in Europe. For the past five years, it has been run as an independent limited liability company owned by the Federal Government, with the BMVg being a partner.

The Foresight Project BWI 20X0 was scientifically guided by the Fraunhofer ISI. It involved the Bundeswehr, various BWI-internal knowledge carriers as well as external experts. The first foresight iteration was conducted over a two-year period. The design of the environmental scenarios was based on the scenarios of the Bundeswehr, also dealing as groundwork for the inward-oriented part of the analysis. The six scenarios that form the core of the foresight analysis cover a broad range of possible developments:

  • Digital Gold Rush – Europe, a Model of Success
  • Democracy & Community – Digitalisation with a Sense of Proportion
  • Muddling Through – Minimal Compromises Out of Necessity
  • Bloc Formation – Geopolitical, Technological and Social Division
  • Multipolar World – Dominance of the Technology Giants
  • Crises and Multiple Threats – The Digital Step Backwards

On this basis, a simplified business canvas was used to assess what these scenarios could imply for the BWI, what the BWI could potentially look like in different futures and what course needs to be set today.

Please click here for the summary: RedBook_BWI20X0.pdf



© BMI GmbH, Illustrator: Thomas Andrae


07/2020 – 03/2022