What does the future market roll-out of alternative drives look like?

Research questions

  • How quickly are electric drives diffusing through the market?
  • Which conventional or alternative drives are potential competitors?
  • Which framework conditions or policy measures influence the market roll-out and how much? (see Policy Mix as well)
  • In which market segments is early diffusion possible? How do you reach users with no access to home charging infrastructure? (see also drive concepts and charging infrastructure)
  • What impacts does a strong diffusion have on OEMs and suppliers, jobs and energy system)? (see also job effects and energy system)
  • How can the electric driving share of PHEVs be increased?

Projects

Long-term scenarios for the transformation of the energy system in Germany / Scenario explorer transport

On behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, the project “Long-term scenarios for the transformation of the energy system in Germany” models different future scenarios for the development of the energy system that are able to achieve the energy and climate policy goals. The model encompasses the entire energy system. The development of the transport sector is modeled using ALADIN (fleet development) and ASTRA (choice of mode of transport).

Electricity Study – Analyses for a secure, cost-efficient and environmentally-compatible power supply (Study Electricity Market 2)

The decarbonization goal calls for a consistent expansion of renewable energies. In this process of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, electricity will become an important energy source for decarbonizing other parts of the energy system in future, because CO2 intensity in the electricity sector is falling. This will further expand the already considerable interfaces between the power sector and other energy supply areas, for example in heat supply and transport. This sector coupling requires a regulatory framework that enables the efficient coordination of different requirements. Large areas of electricity market regulation and design require continuous analysis and constant further development in the context of the energy transition.

Profilregion Mobilitätssysteme Karlsruhe

The Profilregion Mobilitätssysteme Karlsruhe stands for the networking of regional partners in the field of mobility research in order to jointly develop efficient, intelligent and integrated solutions in a High Performance Centre. Fraunhofer ISI coordinates the subproject “Urban Mobility in Transition“. This subproject deals with the effects of demographic change and urbanization on everyday mobility and, building on this, with the development of new mobility concepts. Fraunhofer ISI is also working on the technology assessment of the social and economic effects of the introduction of cooperative driving in the subproject “Introduction scenarios for cooperative networked driving“.  

Market evolution scenarios for electric vehicles

What share of electric vehicles can be expected on the market in Germany by 2020? The study aimed to address this question by using several thousand real driving profiles of conventional vehicles as well as technical and economic data for different scenarios to ascertain the economic potential of electric vehicles. Factors hindering the diffusion of electric vehicles such as their limited range and the restricted choice of models were integrated as supporting factors such as the willingness to pay more for this innovative technology.

Further projects

  • PHEV monitoring in the context of the scientific advice and support for the further development of the Mobility and Fuels Strategy (MFS) for the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure
  • Accompanying research “Framework conditions and market” for the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure

Publications