Scenario Study - Decarbonisation of Shipping in 2050
Shipping is a major contributor to global GHG emissions and the IMO (International Maritime Organization) has laid out a strategy and policies to change that. However, there are multiple critical factors that will determine the development of low-carbon technologies and the possible future of shipping. Fraunhofer ISI was commissioned by MAN Energy Solutions SE to develop scenarios for the maritime industry’s pathway to a greener future. The AHOY2050 study exploits the competitive advantage of the Fraunhofer ISI in combining scenarios of transformation (scenario stories) with quantitative modelling using the MASTISSE model of transitions. It introduces four different scenarios, each with a very different outcome concerning the industry’s future, technological development and GHG mitigation efforts.
The objective of this study was to contribute to the discussions about what a feasible and sustainable pathway to decarbonising shipping could be. The study has identified the critical factors that determine scenarios of GHG mitigation, by combining a review of recent literature on emissions scenarios relevant to shipping with interviews with international experts to identify the determinants of the development of low carbon technologies and possible futures in shipping. In a workshop with international experts, four scenarios on the decarbonisation of shipping 2050 were developed.