A comparison of global production capacities for the critical raw materials considered (lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite) illustrates the uneven distribution of raw material sources worldwide. Figure 1 shows actual extraction volumes based on data from the United States Geological Survey (represented by the dotted line) and the known production capacities from Fraunhofer ISI's own database (solid line).

The production capacities also provide an outlook on future developments. However, the presentation of production capacities is subject to uncertainty, as it cannot be assumed that all mining projects worldwide have been recorded. For this reason, there are also deviations in past values, with real extraction volumes exceeding production capacities. Nevertheless, possible trends can be identified.

Where raw materials for batteries come from

Global lithium production is dominated by a few countries, as a look at the quantities produced from 2020 to 2024 shows. Averaged over the four years, Australia took the top spot with a 45 percent share, followed by Chile with 24 percent. Together, these two countries already accounted for more than half of global lithium production.

The third-largest lithium producer was China, which also played a significant role with a 16 percent share. All other countries together accounted for just under 15 percent of lithium production.

The mining volumes forecast for the future continue to show that the majority of global production will remain in the three leading countries: over the period from 2025 to 2030, Australia's average share will be 33 percent, keeping it at the top, while China will reach 14 percent and Chile around 13 percent.

Cobalt production is heavily concentrated in a single country: it is extremely dependent on the Democratic Republic of Congo. A look at the quantities mined from 2020 to 2024 shows that the country accounted for almost three-quarters of global cobalt production, with a share of 74 percent.

Far behind were Indonesia with six percent and several other countries, each with shares of less than five percent. An analysis of the development of potential mining capacities from 2025 to 2030 confirms the dominance of the Democratic Republic of Congo, even if minor shifts are emerging. Congo remains the undisputed leader with 75 percent, while Indonesia can slightly increase its share (approximately seven percent). Other producing countries can also maintain their shares at a low single-digit level.

In the period from 2020 to 2024, Indonesia dominated nickel production in particular, accounting for 47 percent of the volume mined. The Philippines followed in second place with 11 percent. In contrast to the raw materials considered previously, nickel shows a somewhat broader distribution among producing countries: Russia (7 percent), France/New Guinea (6 percent) and Canada (5 percent) also exceeded the 5 percent mark. The forecast of the available data up to 2030 shows a shift: Indonesia is expected to increase its share to 63 percent. Significant changes include the gain made by Russia (13 percent) and the decline of the Philippines (two percent points). The remaining country shares remain largely constant.

Natural graphite, a key material for anodes in lithium-ion batteries, was mined from 2020 to 2024, particularly in China (76 percent). This was followed by Mozambique, Madagascar and Brazil, each with five to six percent of production share. By 2030, forecasts for potential mining capacity indicate a significant shift: although China will increase its productivity and retain its leading role with 57 percent, it will lose market share as countries such as Canada and Tanzania gain market share in relative terms.