En route to electric mobility – but uncertainty remains

by Josephine Tröger, Marvin Helferich, Aline Scherrer und Elisabeth Dütschke / March 02, 2026

Electric mobility has long been visible on our roads and many scientists believe it is the powertrain of the future – but the public’s reactions to it are still mixed. When people are asked about the future prospects of different types of powertrains for cars, the main response is uncertainty, even though the majority assess the political support measures for electric mobility positively and interest in electric cars has risen again recently.

At Fraunhofer ISI, we regularly ask citizens about selected mobility policy measures as part of the “MobilKULT” panel study. A representative sample of participants is selected from two federal states: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Baden-Württemberg.

We conducted the sixth round of the survey in autumn 2025. This time the focus was on what role different powertrains could play in the future from the perspective of those surveyed. We asked this question based on the current heated debates about the future of mobility and the role of combustion-engine cars. In addition to battery-electric drives, alternative energy sources such as hydrogen or e-fuels are also being publicly debated. The arguments are sometimes heated and emotional – keyword in Germany “Verbrenneraus” (ban of combustion-engine cars).

But what role can alternatives to conventional combustion-engine cars play in the future? What should policymakers be backing and what is considered the “right” way from the citizens’ viewpoint? We present selected results to these questions from our MobilKULT study below.

Policy measures for electric cars are largely supported – measures against combustion-engine cars tend not to be

There is a clear trend apparent in our surveys: Many people approve measures supporting the transformation of mobility toward electric mobility. These include, for example, a purchase premium for electric cars and its income-dependent tiered structure. On average, those questioned also have a positive view of tax breaks for companies in the form of special depreciation allowances for electric cars.

However, those measures aimed at directly limiting the use of combustion-engine cars are largely rejected, for example, a CO₂-based registration tax. A majority is also against the “Verbrenneraus” (ban of combustion-engine cars) (see also the article in German “Klimapolitik in der Krise? Mix aus harten und weichen politischen Maßnahmen als Schlüssel zur gesellschaftlicher Akzeptanz in der Energiewende“ (Climate policy in crisis? Mix of hard and soft policy measures the key to social acceptance in the energy transition)).

Approval of policies / Interest in electric mobility — © Fraunhofer ISI
Figure 1: Comparing the approval of policies for electric mobility between those interested in electric cars and those not interested.

Our analysis clearly shows that those interested in e-mobility (36 percent of those taking part in round 6 of MobilKULT) show stronger approval of all the measures examined – even the “Verbrenneraus” (ban of combustion-engine cars) (see Figure 1).

But a slight majority (51 percent of participants in MobilKULT round 6) are currently not interested in electric mobility and are more skeptical about all the measures. It is therefore essential for the automotive industry and policymakers to identify what the reasons are for this varying degree of interest in electric mobility (see also the German Policy briefing “Mit Verbrennerausstieg in die Zukunft: Empfehlungen zur Stärkung der europäischen Automobilindustrie” (Into the future without combustion engines: Recommendations for strengthening the European automobile industry).

Uncertainties about tomorrow’s powertrain technologies

A possible explanation for why some parts of society show little interest in electric mobility is that the shifting political and public debate is making people feel uncertain.

In March 2023, the decision was made at EU level that registrations of new combustion-engine cars would no longer be permitted from 2035 onwards. However, there are now political discussions about softening this: Instead of a 100 percent emission reduction for new car registrations from 2035, it should be sufficient to achieve only a 90 percent emission reduction (which would correspond to average emissions of about 11 grams of CO₂ per kilometer).

Varying statements about the extent to which alternative fuels and especially e-fuels will be able to meet car traffic demand in this century in an economically viable and technically feasible way are regularly featured in the media (cf. Tagesschau report of January 30, 2026 and the blog post on the topic of e-fuels).

Automobile sector up to 2023 — © Fraunhofer ISI
Figure 2: Ideas about the future of the automotive sector: Which powertrains will dominate?

In the MobilKULT survey rounds in summer 2023 and autumn 2025, we asked participants about their future expectations for the automotive sector and for alternative powertrains up to 2035 (cf. Figure 2). We compared these results with an earlier study by Fraunhofer ISI from the summer of 2020.

This shows that, over time, there has been growing uncertainty about which alternative powertrains could play a major role in the long term, even though there are now many more electric vehicles on the market and on our roads. Currently, 29 percent of those questioned assume that alternative systems will not prevail over petrol or diesel cars – an increase of seven percentage points compared to 2020. A total of 46 percent of respondents assume that either one or several alternative systems will achieve a breakthrough by 2035. One quarter are unwilling or are (no longer) able to predict what the development will be.

There are different responses to the question about which powertrains are in the lead: Only 11 percent think that there will be a single successful alternative system – with most (about 60 percent) assuming this will be electric. Just over one third (35 percent) expect several alternatives to be available at the same time and to replace combustion-engine cars. One of these options is usually electric mobility, but many think hydrogen and e-fuels are likely and expect this combination to be available by 2035.

This is surprising given that there were around half a million new electric car registrations in 2025, meaning that more than 1.9 million electric vehicles are now on Germany’s roads, but fewer than 2,000 hydrogen-fueled vehicles. Furthermore, experts repeatedly point out that producing e-fuels is more expensive and less efficient than the direct use of electricity for mobility (see Wietschel et al. 2023 and Kaya & Wisbert 2025).

Quo vadis electric mobility?

Adopter groups for electric vehicles — © Fraunhofer ISI
Figure 3: Distribution of different adopter groups over the course of the MobilKULT survey rounds.

It is clear that electric mobility in Germany is facing a communications problem rather than a technical one. It has huge potential to make traffic climate-friendlier and to strengthen industry in Germany and Europe. Reliable framework conditions, clear objectives and comprehensible measures can boost confidence in the mobility transformation and in electric mobility as well.

Compared to previous years, the results from the current MobilKULT round reveal uncertainty about the future availability of alternative powertrains. This is countered by a recent increase in general interest in electric mobility among participants of our MobilKULT study (see Figure 3).

However, the intention to buy remains low. The recently reintroduced premium for buying a new electric car may trigger a positive development here. From other research studies, we know that a clever mix of different policies can strengthen both the population’s confidence in future concepts and the ramp-up of electric mobility.