The future of the automotive industry

The global automobile industry is currently facing a time of turmoil and upheaval. New car markets are rapidly growing in importance. For example, China became the world’s largest market for new passenger cars in 2009/2010, while sales on established markets are almost stagnating. Manufacturers and suppliers are facing the substantial business challenges of high global excess capacities, an increasingly differentiated product program right down to models for »niches-within-niches«, which means an ever smaller number of units produced per model, as well as product requirements which increasingly differ on a regional level. New drive concepts, especially electric mobility, and new mobility concepts will penetrate the market in the next years and changing framework conditions will result in altered market dynamics. These comprise mainly the expected steady increase in fossil energy prices and the enforcement of ambitious climate policy targets in the transport sector as well.

The project will provide a systemic view for from global market developments and modified mobility concepts to the position and future potentials of the German automobile sector.

The analysis is conducted for a time horizon of 20 years up to 2030. It concentrates on passenger transport and car markets since the biggest changes are expected here in this period. The following steps are planned:

  • Global development of automobile markets.

  • Export dependency and excess capacities.

  • Potential diversification and structural change concerning vehicle concepts and mobility concepts.

  • Shifts in the supply chain.

  • Employment effects of structural change.

  • Synthesis and recommendations for action.


01.10.2010 - 31.05.2012


  • Committee on Economics and Technology at the German Bundestag.


  • None