Project

The supply of critical and strategic raw materials is of central importance to Germany and the European Union. It affects key and future technologies for the green and digital transformation, as well as issues of economic resilience, technological capacity to act and economic sovereignty. At the same time, there are significant supply risks, such as those arising from geographically concentrated primary production, dependence on imports, volatile prices, geopolitical uncertainties and limited recycling and substitution options. Against this backdrop, the challenges, options for action and innovation needs relating to critical raw materials are to be systematically examined and assessed from a policy perspective.

The project aims to develop a sound understanding of raw materials supply security in Germany and the EU and to derive implications for economic and technological sovereignty from this. To this end, critical and strategic raw materials are examined in accordance with the EU classification system, with a particular focus on primary and secondary production, foreign trade, import dependencies, demand sectors, future technologies and price trends. The focus is on the question of what risks arise from existing supply structures and which raw materials are particularly relevant for key technologies.

Building on this, the project analyses options for action to safeguard economic sovereignty: the development of new sources of supply, material substitution, more efficient use of critical raw materials, as well as recycling and other circular economy approaches. In addition, technical, legal and economic barriers are examined, and measures relating to innovation and industrial policy are derived. Methodologically, the study draws on literature and document reviews, databases on raw material production, trade and research funding, as well as patent and project analyses.

The study shows that high dependence on imports and the geographical concentration of raw material extraction and processing are jeopardising the security of supply in Germany and the EU, whilst the green and digital transitions are further increasing demand. New sources of supply and domestic deposits offer potential for diversification, but raw materials partnerships have so far failed to yield any substantial practical results, and the development of domestic deposits faces economic, technical and societal hurdles. An analysis of seven particularly critical raw materials highlights that improving efficiency and using substitutes can help reduce demand; however, their potential and limitations depend heavily on the specific raw material, the context of use and the level of technological maturity. Recycling strengthens resilience in the long term, but cannot compensate for acute supply bottlenecks and requires not only suitable recovery technologies but also product design that facilitates recycling, improved information flows, and efficient collection and logistics systems. To ensure a sustainable and resilient supply of raw materials, the study recommends a long-term, coordinated mix of innovation and industrial policy instruments that addresses raw-material-specific barriers and is supported by international cooperation, appropriate framework conditions and public acceptance.

• Tercero Espinoza, L.; Ivanova, D.; Kunze, S.; Eberling, E.; Langkau, S.; Schwabe, C.; Hummler, A.; Ostertag, K. (2026): Kritische Rohstoffe – Herausforderungen, Potenziale und Innovationsbedarfe. Studie im Auftrag der Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI). Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI.

01.12.2025 bis 01.09.2026

Commission of Experts for Research and Innovation - Expertenkommission Forschung und Innovation (EFI)