Model-based Scenario Analysis of the Effects of Made in China 2025 on the Value-added and Market Shares of the German Mechanical Engineering Industry (Made in China 2025)

With the industrial masterplan “Made in China 2025”, the China's government aims to achieve a high-tech leadership in ten important sectors within a relatively short time. In the focus of the plan is the gradual replacement of foreign with Chinese technology resting upon a strong technology catch-up strategy. Should China succeed in partial or even complete implementation of set targets, it arises a question for German industry: What effects can this have on the Chinese as well as on the global value-added and market shares of German companies?

Modelling and simulation of the value-added and market effects of “Made in China 2025” on German industry for the time horizon of 5-10 years based on the current system. Because of its high relevance with regard to the advanced manufacturing technologies mentioned in “Made in China 2025”, such as high-end-controlled machine tool systems, robot technologies, smart sensors, radio recognition chips, etc., the study is being carried out with a special focus on German Mechanical Engineering Industry.

In order to simulate and analyse the dynamic and complex behaviour defined with the research objective, the approach System Dynamics is used in the study. In this approach, the value chain of mechanical engineering industry is modelled using a qualitative model approach first. This model is implemented as a framework for developing a quantitative (mathematical) model for simulating and analysing the market and value-added dynamics.

Based on the results of the modelling, various response scenarios will be developed in an interactive process with decision-makers from industry and ministries. These scenarios will illustrate how the various players in the German mechanical engineering industry could act under these conditions.




Bertelsmann Stiftung