Foresight on Demand (FOD) After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world

“After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post COVID-19 world” is a project that provides strategic context for EU R&I policy. The study sheds light on options for EU R&I policy to benefit European society in a post COVID-19 era. To this end, we developed long-term scenarios (until 2040) describing how the crisis may affect the context of European R&I policy in the long run. For the scenario development we adopted a morphological approach. We identified the key influencing factors for the R&I policy context by revisiting established mega-trends, new signals and ongoing academic and foresight work on COVID-19 long term impacts in a horizon scanning. In order to elaborate the factors and their possible long-term evolution in alternatives, we started with an interactive scoping workshop. The outcomes were further developed into fully fledged scenarios within two “scenario sprint” workshops involving participants with a diversity of backgrounds.

From the scenarios, we derived statements describing potential developments around research and innovation (policy). They were formulated to conduct a Delphi survey assessing likelihood and importance of the possible events. The last workshop was dedicated to a qualitative sense-making exercise with European Commission staff and external R&I policy experts to reflect on robust policy options.