Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Project

Exploring the ramp-up of hydrogen production in the EU - Technical assistance to analyse the potentials for the ramp up of hydrogen production and possible bottlenecks in the EU and in relation to imports into the EU

The study will provide a detailed overview of renewable hydrogen production in the EU and third countries at both project and Member State levels. This will help assess the capacity of Member States to positively contribute towards the EU energy transition and decarbonisation objectives. The assessment of the hydrogen framework will support the review of the 2023/1184 Delegated Act on Renewable Fuels of Non-biological Origin (RFNBOs). Specifically, the study will address the additionality, temporal, and geographical correlation RFNBO criteria for electricity procurement. 

Fraunhofer ISI leads the project level modelling, in particular develops alternative scenarios associated with different policy interventions and analyses assessment criteria at project level e.g. bankability of projects, environmental effectiveness, and economic efficiency.

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The EU’s hydrogen strategy lays out the European Commission’s vision for hydrogen and its role as an energy carrier in an integrated European energy system. Renewable hydrogen represents a strategic opportunity to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors, and hard-to-electrify sectors in particular. Ramping up renewable hydrogen production aims to support the achievement of the EU climate neutrality objective by 2050, as part of an integrated energy system.

 

The objective of this study is to support the European Commission in implementing and updating the legislative framework applying for the production of renewable hydrogen. The project will provide a detailed overview of hydrogen production in the EU and third countries at both project and Member State levels, and their capacity to positively contribute towards the EU energy transition and decarbonization objectives. An assessment of bottlenecks for the achievement of the European targets for RFNBOs and of the objectives the EU aims to achieve by supporting renewable hydrogen production will support the review of the regulatory framework for the production of RFNBOs.

 

Hydrogen projects database and stakeholder engagement (lead ICF)

  • Monitor and identify the key drivers for increasing hydrogen production and barriers hampering the development of hydrogen in the EU through stakeholder engagement.

Project level modelling (lead Fraunhofer ISI)

  • Develop alternative scenarios associated with different policy interventions.
  • Analyse assessment criteria at project level e.g. bankability of projects, environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency.

Energy systems level modelling (lead Artelys)

  • Analyse changes to the RFNBO market uptake using the METIS tool, taking into account infrastructure constraints and system dynamics.
  • Assess system-level impacts on additionality, temporal and geographical correlation, production costs, electricity price formation and greenhouse gas emission.

 

Anticipated results:

  • Improved knowledge of existing hydrogen projects located in the EU and in third countries.
  • Improved understanding of drivers for the success and failure of hydrogen projects in the EU. 
  • Improved knowledge of the impact of additionality and temporal and geographical correlation on the production of hydrogen within the EU and third countries.
  • Quantitative insights into the impacts of potential changes of the policy framework.
  • Improved capacity of the European Commission to identify policy options to improve the regulatory framework for the production of hydrogen.
  • Improved understanding of hydrogen projects' potential to positively contribute towards the energy transition.

Duration

from 1st April 2025 until May 31, 2028

Clients

  • European Commission, DG ENER

Partners

  • ICF (project lead)
  • Artelys

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