Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISIThe Future of City Centers – Co-Creating Sustainable Urban Futures with Foresight
The project “The Future of City Centers – Rethinking Sustainable Urban Centers through Foresight Methods” was carried out on behalf of the German Environment Agency (UBA) to explore new approaches for the long-term, sustainable, and collaborative development of city centers. In the face of climate change, demographic shifts, digitalization, changing mobility needs, and economic transformation, strategic foresight helps municipalities explore a range of possible futures and develop robust options for action.
The foresight component of the project was led by Dr. Anna Kirstgen at Fraunhofer ISI. Together with the German Institute of Urban Affairs (Difu), a practical and participatory process was designed and implemented in seven municipalities. The participating cities and urban districts, including Barntrup, the Faulenquartier district in Bremen, Hann. Münden, Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Haßfurt, Großenhain, and Bad Belzig, represented a wide variety of regional, spatial, and demographic contexts. Ranging from historic town centers and inner-city neighborhoods to cities characterized by unique landscapes or transformation processes, they reflected the diversity of challenges faced by municipalities today.
A central component of the project was a series of participatory formats, particularly two-day future workshops conducted on site. Citizens, representatives from local government and politics, business owners, urban planners, civil society organizations, cultural actors, community initiatives, and academic and professional experts worked together to envision their city center in the year 2048. These workshops created a safe space for participants to move beyond established ways of thinking, make different interests visible, and develop positive, realistic, and actionable visions of the future.
A key element of the process was the use of Future Seeds: visual signal cards highlighting social, technological, environmental, economic, and political developments. The findings of the scientific trend analysis were translated into accessible, visually engaging formats tailored to a broad audience. Participants could select, discuss, prioritize, and supplement the Seeds with local issues and concerns. In this way, global developments were connected with the specific conditions and needs of each municipality.
The workshop process guided participants step by step, from identifying relevant future signals to developing shared visions and stress-testing them against potential future events such as extreme weather, vacancies in commercial properties, or societal change. Finally, the visions were mapped onto concrete locations within the respective city centers and translated into narrative urban futures. Based on these concepts, and in collaboration with Studio Rustemeyer, illustrations of the local city visions were created, making abstract future scenarios tangible and supporting local dialogue on urban development.