Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Project

Horizon scanning of developments relevant to climate protection - Klimascan

Implementation of measure 3.5.4.3 of the Federal Government's Climate Protection Programme 2030 for the implementation of the Climate Protection Plan 2050

The aim of the Klimascan project was to establish and test a interdepartmental horizon scanning system for the German Climate Protection Policies. This involved, firstly, a semi-automated scanning for signals of social trends relevant to the achievement of climate targets. Secondly, the trend signals identified were condensed into emerging future topics in sensemaking workshops. The future topics were evaluated in future dialogues according to their relevance and the need for action for ongoing and planned climate protection measures. This was assessed with representatives from various policy areas. On this basis, three topics were selected and examined in depth in terms of trends and drivers, interactions between trends, opportunities and risks for climate protection, and the need for action:

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Duration

09/2021 - 05/2024

Clients

  • Federal Environment Agency (UBA)
  • Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK)

Partners

  • Oeko-institute e.V.
  • New Climate Institute

  • Scoping to narrow down the scope of the study to social developments that are important for current and future climate protection measures in various policy areas
  • Semi-automated horizon scanning to identify and evaluate relevant sources in literature databases, news sources, selected websites and platforms.
  • Expert-based elaboration and validation of signals for social, technological, ecological, economic and political developments of high relevance and high uncertainty (desk research and sensemaking workshops)
  • In-depth expert analysis of selected emerging topics with regard to important trends and their interactions, opportunities and risks for climate protection and the need for action
  • Future dialogues with representatives from various ministries and agencies as well as experts from the fields of foresight and research to discuss the need for action and options.
  • Compilation of the results as UBA reports.