Project

In line with the Paris Agreement, the EU has set itself the target of reaching net-zero Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Different options exist to reach this goal and Member States chose different political options in their attempt to reach net-zero GHG emissions. This project uses models to develop scenarios and analyze whether these reductions can be achieved with current measures and what additional measures are needed to meet the targets. 

The project “Pathways to an EU in 2050 with net-zero GHG emissions” aims to identify the various ways in which the EU and its member states can achieve a climate-neutral economy. The final report presents the modeling framework, defines the various scenarios and assumptions, and discusses the results from the three scenarios developed during the project: EUBase, EUTarget, and EUSupreme.

In addition to modeling these three scenarios, a work package focusing on the EU taxonomy assessed the extent to which these scenarios align with the EU taxonomy. The work package also addressed the question of what measures, beyond the models used, would be necessary to enable the modeling of the EU Taxonomy and its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis focuses on the impacts of policies, strategies, and measures on greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand, and other sector-specific relevant physical values. The analysis does not include the impacts of the scenarios on costs and the resulting investment needs, on energy prices, or on macroeconomic indicators, in particular the development of GDP and employment figures. Such values (monetary values and employment) are mainly outside the scope of the applied models; where results are available, they are not included in the analysis.

The results were incorporated into three reports:  

• Main report on the scenarios: Pathways to an EU in 2050 with net-zero GHG emissions 
• Analysis of the EU Taxonomy: The EU Taxonomy in modeling 
• Comparison with the EU Impact Assessment: Projected EU emissions in 2040 

Scenario analysis

Three scenarios for the EU’s transformation were developed and analyzed:  

EUBase – based on strategies already implemented and planned at the national and European levels in 2022, without any additional measures.  

In this baseline scenario, the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate targets would not be met: 850 million tons of CO₂e (CO₂ equivalents) would continue to be emitted. 

EUTarget – this scenario outlines a technology-driven pathway in which ambitious efficiency measures, the use of CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) in industry and energy supply, and high shares of renewables enable a net-zero balance.  

This scenario nearly achieves net-zero: Approximately 30 million tons of CO₂e would still need to be removed annually through technical measures. 

EUSupreme – a transformation pathway strongly oriented toward sufficiency and sustainability, focusing on behavioral changes, the circular economy, and reduced energy demand, without the use of CCS.  

The EUSupreme scenario achieves a net sink of approximately 115 million tons of CO₂e by 2050, thereby significantly exceeding the EU’s climate targets. 

The analyses show:

• Net-zero is achievable, but only with far-reaching changes across all sectors—energy, industry, transportation, buildings, agriculture, and land use that enhances carbon sequestration. Continuing current policy measures will not be sufficient to meet climate targets.
• A stronger circular economy, high levels of electrification, heating system upgrades, dietary shifts, and natural carbon sinks play crucial roles in all pathways.

Analyses of the EU Taxonomy

In a further analysis conducted as part of the project, the three scenarios are compared with the EU Taxonomy and examine how the climate impacts of the Taxonomy (e.g., on financial flows) could be modeled. The EU Taxonomy provides a uniform and highly specific definition of which economic activities are considered environmentally sustainable.

Despite some technical limitations in the analysis and associated uncertainties, the results show that the EUTarget and EUSupreme scenarios achieve earlier and higher taxonomy compliance than the EUBase scenario. Direct modeling of the taxonomy’s impact is discussed in the study but would entail significant effort. Additionally, new scenarios would need to be developed and further empirical data collected.

• Duscha, Vicki; Al-Dabbas, Khaled; Deac, Gerda; Eckstein, Johannes; Frank, Fabio; Weißenburger, Bastian et al. (2026): Pathways to an EU in 2050 with net-zero GHG-emissions. Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt (Climate Change, 18/2026). doi.org/10.60810/openumwelt-8104Publikation
• Duscha, Vicki; Al-Dabbas, Khaled; Deac, Gerda; Eckstein, Johannes; Frank, Fabio; Alexander-Haw, Abigail et al. (2026): The EU Taxonomy in modeling. Dessau-Roßlau: Umweltbundesamt (Climate Change, 08/2026). https://doi.org/10.60810/openumwelt-8191
• Emele, L., Böttcher, H., Hesse, T., Ludig, S., Scheffler, M., Al-Dabas, K., Deac, G., Duscha, V., & Frank, F. (2026). Projected EU emissions in 2040. German Environment Agency. https://doi.org/10.60810/openumwelt-8141

• Scenario development and techno-economic modeling / Modeling the policy effects of regulatory instruments
• Bottom-up modeling using sectoral models
• Scenario comparison

December 2021 to October 2025.

• Federal Environment Agency (UBA)

• Öko-Institut
• IREES GmbH