This project supports the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy in the scientific evaluation of the effects of the Renewable Energy Sources Act and the Offshore Wind Energy Act, as well as in the preparation of the corresponding evaluation report in accordance with the European Commission's state aid guidelines for the reporting period 2021-2024.
European state aid rules require each member state to comprehensively evaluate state aid approved by the European Commission. This also applies to the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the Offshore Wind Energy Act (WindSeeG). Such an evaluation under state aid law must follow the COM guidelines and demonstrate both the direct and indirect effects as well as the proportionality and appropriateness of the aid. The revised climate, environment, and energy aid guidelines (CEEAG) require an analysis of the financing gap; for this purpose, price revenue scenarios over 20 years must be supplemented, the European electricity market must be modeled, and technology-specific market values must be determined.
In Germany, electricity from renewable energies is subsidized in accordance with the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) and the Offshore Wind Energy Act (WindSeeG). Subsidies for high-performance plants are determined in competitive tenders. Low-performance plants can receive legally administered market premiums or a fixed feed-in tariff. The aim of this project was to produce an evaluation report which, in accordance with a questionnaire agreed between the European Commission and the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, primarily evaluates subsidies for renewable energy plants that are awarded through tenders.
The evaluation is based on the assessment and analysis of anonymized bid data from the various tender segments for all tender rounds for renewable energy plants in the years 2021 to 2024, which were provided by the Federal Network Agency. In addition to descriptive statistics and the derivation of statements using theory-based impact evaluation, the methods also include a counterfactual impact evaluation, in which the causal effects of the subsidy are determined by means of a counterfactual assessment. For this purpose, a counterfactual scenario was modeled that shows the theoretical development of the electricity system without subsidies. In addition, quasi-experimental statistical methods were used to assess the causal effect of the subsidy.
During the observation period, the annual growth of installed capacity of RES plants increased significantly. The increased addition of RES capacities has led to growing competition in the electricity market. It has also increased competition among direct marketers of subsidised RES electricity. In all technological segments, additions primarily took place within the framework of support. During the evaluation period, there were also realisations of projects outside the EEG, but the share of capacity additions was in the low single-digit range, except for PV ground-mounted systems. Regarding the appropriateness of support, no indications of excessively high or low remuneration were found for solar and wind energy plants based on the consideration of levelised cost of electricity. For biomass plants, the subsidy for new plants is considered too low, but for existing plants, it is deemed appropriate. Against this background, the increased award prices across all segments in tenders are mainly an indicator of increased costs and the need for adjustments in the respective markets. The increase in maximum values in tenders in 2023 thus appears logical.
October 2022 – March 2026
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI