Employment Effects of the Energy Transition in Bavaria
The project focuses on the impact of implementing the objectives of the Bavarian Energy Policy on the labor demand in Bavaria. The aim is to determine the net employment effect by taking the positive and negative effects into account as comprehensively as possible. The time horizon extends until 2030 with a focus on the year 2025, which is particularly relevant for the Energy Policy.
A macroeconomic model is used to quantify the employment effects, taking into account techno-economic impulses that have been regionally differentiated. The macro economic effects of the expansion of renewable energies can be attributed to individual regions. The granularity extends to administrative districts. The results are not reported by districts, since an exact spatial allocation is not possible for some electricity generating technologies. The macroeconomic parameters of value added and employment for Bavaria are aggregated by economic sector and at state level.
Two scenarios are developed to determine the impact on employment: the "Business-as-usual" scenario (BAU scenario), which serves as a reference, and the energy transition scenario. The scenarios differ regarding the expansion of renewable energies and take the political framework conditions in Bavaria and Germany into account. In addition, a path for the economic development and energy prices is set. The development of the scenarios is model based, the models FORECAST (energy demand for households, the sector trade, commerce and services and industry), Invert (heat demand in buildings), ASTRA-D (transport demand) and Enertile (electricity system) are used. Based on the scenarios, regionally and temporally differentiated techno-economic impulses are incorporated into the macroeconomic model. By comparing the model results, the net employment effect of the energy transition in Bavaria can be determined.
The labor demand in Bavaria in the energy transition scenario between 2020 and 2030 is up to 1 % higher than it is in the BAU scenario . In 2025, this corresponds to approximately 41,000 additional full-time equivalents. Approximately one third of the additional employees are needed in the energy supply sector. Overall, electricity generation in Bavaria is significantly higher in the energy transition scenario than in the BAU scenario and results in particular from additional photovoltaic systems and gas-fired power plants. In addition to the energy supply sector, the construction industry also experiences significant increases in employment as a result of the energy transition, which is largely attributable to additional investments to increase energy efficiency in the building sector. The increases in most service sectors are mostly induced effects resulting from the increased income and demand levels in the energy transition scenario.
Negative net employment effects in Bavaria arise in the manufacturing sector, especially in the manufacturing of electrical equipment and mechanical engineering. This is due to the fact that other federal states gain market share through direct effects. As expected, the net effects are somewhat lower than in previous studies on the gross effects of the expansion of renewable energies in Bavaria.
Since there have been no studies on net employment effects in Bavaria so far, only the relative changes can be compared with those from studies with other regional relevance. These are on a similar scale.
16 December 2015 - 31 January 2017
Commissioned by Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt (Bavarian Environmental Agency)