Project

According to the 2015 Paris Agreement, the rise in global temperatures should be limited to a maximum of 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C. This requires a worldwide transition of energy systems to low-carbon energy supply and use.

Countries like China and Germany have been making big moves to decarbonize their economies. For example, Germany has reached a renewable share of over 30% of its electricity mix, up from just under 5% about 15 years ago. China has also achieved a renewable energy share of around 25%, although fluctuating energy sources such as wind and solar currently only account for 5% but their share is growing rapidly. Due to the less reliable grid at the regional level and, in contrast to Germany, less favorable interconnections with neighboring countries, China is already facing considerable curtailment of renewables, making grid expansion and the introduction of demand response and energy efficiency options even more important than in Germany.

By the middle of this century, renewable energies could account for almost 100% of electricity generation. This poses significant challenges for the integration of renewable energies into the physical electricity system and the power markets. In this context, the project aims to develop analytical tools and analyses that are important for RES integration into the electricity markets of China and Germany and to utilize these results in expert and policy-level discussions with Chinese counterparts.

An important scientific and/or technical objective of the project is to be able to use sophisticated analytical tools to provide policy makers with detailed (time and location resolved) analyses of the electricity sector (and integrated energy systems for the heat and transport sectors) and to develop possible solutions.

The first objective of the project is to develop analytical capabilities for the Chinese electricity system (at the national/supra-national level), based on Fraunhofer's extensive experience in the German and EU-MENA area.

The second objective is to promote the role of load management and energy efficiency as enablers of flexibility (via Learning Networks for energy efficiency and load management), as the share of renewable energy sources in China is set to increase significantly in the coming years.

The third objective is the communication of the results to a wider group of stakeholders in China.

Analytical tools and energy systems analysis at the national Chinese level

This block develops analytical tools and scenarios for China:

1. We first lay the grounds for an analytical model for the electricity sector in China (time and space resolved basis, regional division of China).

2. Then we focus on major analytical aspects through scenario analysis of RES expansion up to 2050 and annual power dispatch in a time resolved manner.

3. We investigate major enablers for flexibility in the power system which provide the basis for the integration of RES into the power system. We focus on demand response and EE options, as the most cost-efficient enablers at short term, as well as on sector coupling with the heat and transport sector, which are important flexibility enablers at the longer term.

4. We analyse the organization of power markets in China and compare with Germany and Europe. Without such a reorganization of the power markets, RES will not efficiently penetrate the markets. It is important to develop market elements which provide incentives to producers and consumers to integrate RES into the markets.

5. Finally, we focus on the policy implications on the analysis and on market-based policy support for RES.

Supranational integration of power systems beyond China

Though China is a large area, the country and its neighbours can benefit in economic, technical and political terms from a larger integration of power systems into an Asian Supergrid. This is analogous to the integration of the EU-MENA power systems which could bring large economic benefits and a political stabilisation of the region.

We develop the analytical basis for such analysis with the adaptation of the EU-MENA Enertile model (www.enertile.eu) to the perspective of an Asian Supergrid, including next to China also neighboring countries such as Korea or Japan.

We carry out, in close link with national Chinese level, the analysis of scenarios for RES integration at supra-national level

Combined Learning Networks for demand response and energy efficiency

We develop a concrete concept for the roll-out of combined demand response and EE options in China through so-called Networks for Energy Efficiency (LEEN), which have been developed to spread out through small networks of companies (10-15) the experience on energy efficiency. This helps lowering learning and transaction costs for the companies.

These networks are well adapted to the spread of demand response options also and their concept shall be developed further in this direction.

The networks have a large success in Germany with respect to the spreading of EE options in industry and services.

China has had experience with the networks and is looking at them in the 13th 5-years plan.

Interaction between Chinese and German partners and the stakeholders

The last work package focusses on interactions with stakeholders and experts in China and Germany. We further strengthen here the links between national and supra-national analysis through the form of workshops with external participation.

Beihang University, CAS-ISD and Fraunhofer ISI have been editing a Special Issue on “Modelling Long-term Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies towards Climate Neutrality“ in the Journal “Computers & Industrial Engineering (CAIE)“ which published project results as well as a number of further journal papers.

from 01.07.2018 till 30.06.2021

• DLR Projektträger e.V.
  

• Beihang University, School of Economics and Management (Beijing)
• LEEN GmbH Lernende Energieeffizienz Netzwerke
• Chinese Academy of Science - Institutes of Science and Development (Beijing)