Fraunhofer-Institut für
System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

Mapping and analyses of the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables)

Mapping EU heat supply

Heating and cooling (H/C) account for the major share of final energy demand in industry, services and the residential sector in the EU. It therefore plays a central role in achieving energy policy goals like climate change mitigation, security of supply and competitiveness. At the same time, the official statistics only provide an incomplete picture regarding H/C: Data is often scattered, incomplete or not available.

This project aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the current state of the EU’s H/C sector as well as possible future trajectories until 2020 and 2030.

Main objectives

1. End-use energy balances for H/C for 2012: A consistent end-use energy balance is compiled for Europe’s H/C sector. The results are disaggregated by country, sector, sub-sector, building type, energy carrier end-use and temperature level.

2. Current state of H/C technologies: This work package gathers information on the current stock of H/C technologies in European countries. It distinguishes technologies in buildings, industry and district heating and assesses the current performance of H/C technologies.

3. Scenarios up until 2030: Using the bottom-up models FORECAST, Invert/EE-Lab and Green-X, this work package develops scenarios for the evolution of the H/C sector up until 2030. The results are analysed with regard to final, useful and primary energy, CO₂ emissions, import shares, induced investments and RES-H/C shares.

4. Analysis of economic impacts up until 2030: The macro-economic model ASTRA is then used to assess the economic impacts of the different scenario results in terms of induced employment and economic growth.

5. Analysis of barriers, best practices and policies: Based on the existing literature and expert interviews, we analyse and discuss the barriers, best practices and policies for the increased use of RES in the individual market segments of the H/C sector.


  • Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
  • Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology
  • TEP Energy
  • IREES GmbH: Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies
  • Observ’ER

Client: European Commission DG Energy / DG Research

Duration: January 2015 to May 2016


Fleiter, T.; Steinbach, J.; Ragwitz, M. (projekt coordination) et al. (2016): Mapping and analyses for the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel development (fossil/renewables). Fraunhofer ISI, Frauhofer ISE, TU Wien, TEP Energy, IREES, Observer:

© 2018 Fraunhofer ISI