NMP technologies have the potential to contribute significantly to the move of Europe from a resource-intensive economy to a knowledge-intensive economy in the future. They will lead to new applications, new business models, new products, new production patterns, new services, new processes and other outcomes.

Against this background the study “Economic foresight study on industrial trends and the research needed to support the competitiveness of European industry around 2025” aims at elaborating and presenting qualitative and quantitative prospective scenarios considering the expected positioning and potential of the European industry in the field relevant for research in nanotechnologies, materials and production technologies (NMP).

The main objectives of this study are to

1. Identify the key factors which influenced positively or negatively economic competitiveness during the last 20 years.
2. Elaborate and use a quantitative model based on the main past quantitative and qualitative key factors and derive different future scenarios around 2025.
3. Analyse the influence of key factors and trends on crucial economic and NMP-specific aspects to assess the role of NMP under this framework around 2025.
4. Assess the European position and critical parameters likely to affect the competitiveness of EU industry around 2025 in order to derive recommendations on technologies, research and policies needed to maintain or improve the European position.

In order to address the four central objectives of the study we have designed 9 discrete, but interconnected Work Packages (WP). WP1 to WP3 correspond to objective 1, WP4 to WP6 correspond to objective 2, WP7 corresponds to objective 3 and WP8 corresponds to objective 4.

In WP1 NMP specific developments over the past 15-20 years as well as emerging (weak) or future signals and future trends will be identified, based on desk research. WP2 complements WP1 with general (economic) developments on a “macro-level”. In WP3, key variables and correlations between them will be identified and hypotheses to be tested in an econometric model will be derived. A detailed analysis of NMP-specific developments and trends follows in WP4. WP5 concerns as a counterpart to WP4 the detailed analysis of general economic and industrial developments and statistics. WP6 comprises the elaboration, adaption and testing of the econometric model. WP7 concerns the description, simulation and assessment of three scenarios mainly based on the model results from WP6. In WP8 recommendations to the EC will be prepared based on the previous work packages and analysis of the study, including desk research, model and scenario outcomes and workshops with experts. WP9 is concerned with project management.

The main challenge of the project will be to bring together qualitative and quantitative work on the NMP-level and (macro)economic-level, respectively, and to translate NMP-specifities into a quantitative model as well as derive well-founded qualitative recommendations from the scenarios.

Thus, a smallest possible consortium with the broadest possible expertise is needed in order to enable a timely efficient and with respect to contents (NMP specific, econometric, methodological and foresight expertise) effective exchange of information and working together.

The Fraunhofer Institutes (Fraunhofer ISI and Fraunhofer ISC) are members of the Fraunhofer Nanotechnology Alliance (Fraunhofer Nanotech) and provide their own as well as additional access to NMP expertise. Fraunhofer ISI provides furthermore detailed expertise in foresight methodologies and economic modelling. The subcontractor Prof. Andre Jungmittag (FH Frankfurt) is an internationally renowned expert in economics and quantitative methods and provides complementary expertise in econometric modelling. The budget foreseen for this tender can therefore be allocated effectively among a limited but qualified number of contributing project members, thereby providing a suitable distribution of time available to the team in order to finish the project with the best possible quality.

Status:
laufend (04.11.2010-03.04.2012)

Auftraggeber:
European Commisson, DG Research

Partner:
Fh-ISC,
Fraunhofer-Allianz Nano FNT,
Prof. André Jungmittag, Fachhochschule Frankfurt am Main

Publikationen:           
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