More renewable energies for ASEAN countries
Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam: 8.5 percent of the world’s population lives in countries belonging to the ASEAN Association (Association of Southeast Asian nations). While they are responsible for around 4.5 percent of the global energy consumption the ten nations contribute 5.7 percent to the primary energy production. The years between 2000 and 2014 saw historic economic growth of an annual average of 5.2 percent which was linked to a rapidly increasing demand for energy. In the face of this challenge the ASEAN Energy Centre and the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ) have commissioned the “ASEAN Energy Outlook“, scientifically supported by Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI. The 4th ASEAN Energy Outlook, which has recently been published, shows future developments and perspectives of the ASEAN region.
All ten ASEAN member states have developed foresight models supplemented with national data on energy requirements, desired economic growth and projected population growth for the 4th “ASEAN Energy Outlook“. The national results were validated with an overall model for the entire region. Project team member Jose Antonio Ordonez of Fraunhofer ISI describes the special character of this approach, “It is rare that member states participate so actively in generating a model. The chosen method has the advantage that it is highly transparent and valid, which is primarily due to close consultation with the participating countries. Furthermore, the constructed models can be continued to be used and further developed in the respective countries“.
On the basis of the combined data two scenarios were developed. The BAU scenario (Business as Usual Scenario) without major changes for energy policies and the APS scenario (Advancing Policies Scenario) with policy measures for more renewable energies and energy efficiency. Currently the ASEAN countries consume roughly 620 Mtoe (megaton oil equivalents) of primary energy. According to the BAU scenario consumption will rise to 1,685 Mtoe in the year 2035 – also due to a desired economic growth of an average of 6.1 percent and a population growth of one percent per year. In the APS scenario consumption would be 1.468 Mtoe in 2035 in the case of the same economic and population growth – a saving of 13 percent compared to the BAU scenario.
Project manager Professor Martin Pudlik of Fraunhofer ISI summarizes, “As the energy requirements will more than double by 2035, the ASEAN region is facing great challenges. In order to tackle these the countries have to cooperate closely − now, in the mid-term and in future“. In addition, there needs to be an orientation towards more renewable energies and energy efficiency: “In the current models of the ASEAN countries the share of coal is very high. If this was implemented this would lead to high greenhouse gas emissions, due to the expansion of the domestic coal production. Here renewables could make a valuable contribution – also because their potential in these countries has only been exploited to a very small extent“.
To follow up the “ASEAN Energy Outlook“ Fraunhofer ISI is currently working on a scenario for the ASEAN region with a high share of renewable energies. First results indicate that these can largely contribute to tackling the challenges of the significantly increased energy requirements. The complete results are expected in May 2016.
The “ASEAN Energy Outlook“ can be downloaded (after registration) at http://www.aseanenergy.org/resources/publications/the-4th-asean-energy-outlook/.
The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI analyzes the origins and impacts of innovations. We research the short- and long-term developments of innovation processes and the impacts of new technologies and services on society. On this basis, we are able to provide our clients from industry, politics and science with recommendations for action and perspectives for key decisions. Our expertise is founded on our scientific competence as well as an interdisciplinary and systemic research approach.