Project

Among other things, the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 outlined the efforts needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. A special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2018 will examine what climate pathways look like that are compatible with this target. The project “What the 1.5°C target means for the EU” substantially expands the knowledge base with regard to the interconnections between the sectoral design of GHG reductions and emission lock-ins.

The project’s concrete objectives for the EU are

• to determine the achievable decarbonisation rates for specific sectors and the measures necessary for these based on bottom-up scenarios,
• to derive conclusions from this about cumulative emissions and modifications to the emission budget if GHG reductions are delayed,
• and to work out general conclusions regarding the design and the timeline of an EU climate policy that is compatible with the 1.5°C target.

Four work packages (WP) are planned to develop these sector-specific results on emission dynamics compatible with 1.5°C for the EU. First, an evaluation is made of existing scenarios compatible with 1.5 and 2°C targets in relation to the range of negative emissions and the EU’s emission budget up to 2050 (WP 1). In parallel, sectoral potentials and the associated measures are determined based on existing bottom-up scenarios for the EU (WP 2). The results of WPs 1 and 2 determine the respective consequences of early and delayed climate protection for the EU’s emission budget (WP 3). General policy recommendations can be derived from this concerning the necessary actions and options (WP 4). In addition, there will be widespread dissemination of the results (WP 5).

Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Grant number: 01LS1607A