Global supply chains are increasingly under pressure. At the same time, requirements for sustainability, resource efficiency, and the technical reliability of materials are rising. Companies and research therefore face a central question: How can a resilient and sustainable supply be ensured in the long term?

Why a systematic look into the future of materials supply is crucial

The Fraunhofer Flagship Project ORCHESTER provides a well-founded answer: A comprehensive Trend Report makes key developments visible early on and places them in a strategic context. Resilient material systems emerge where trends are identified early, connected through systems thinking, and translated purposefully into innovation. Fraunhofer researchers have identified three "Game Changer Trends" for materials supply that illustrate this:

1. Secondary raw material markets: A key to circular supply

Secondary raw materials are materials recovered through recycling from waste, end-of-life products, or production residues. Markets for secondary raw materials are central to a functioning circular economy in Europe because they enable the reuse of high-quality materials and reduce dependence on primary resources.

However, numerous challenges exist along the value chain: regulatory uncertainty, missing standards, and fluctuating material qualities. While markets for aluminium, paper, and glass already work well, others are still underdeveloped, for example in plastics or textiles.

To further develop secondary raw material markets, concrete measures are needed on multiple levels: material requirements should be made more flexible so that variable material qualities and different secondary material sources can be used systematically. This requires a stronger focus on functional properties rather than rigid compositions.

At the same time, recycling processes must be purposefully adapted and further developed to ensure both availability and consistently high material quality, even with heterogeneous input streams.

In addition, it is crucial to reduce import dependencies in a targeted way by further unlocking secondary raw materials, especially for critical materials such as nickel or rare earths, and integrating them into existing value chains. Standardized quality requirements, digital product passports, and transparent material information can support this and enable the long-term development of stable, integrated circular markets.

2. Autocratization: Geopolitics as a risk factor

The global rise of autocratic systems is fundamentally changing the framework conditions of markets and supply chains. Trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory uncertainty significantly increase risks for companies. Businesses increasingly have to balance efficiency and resilience. Traditional supply chains are challenged by fragmentation, protectionism, and new security requirements.

To respond to geopolitical uncertainty, companies need to adjust their material strategies in a targeted way, especially by diversifying sources and making greater use of substitution options. Technical specifications should be designed so that alternative materials and different origins can be integrated more easily.

In parallel, building regional and robust recycling structures is necessary to reduce supply risks and create a more independent material base. Local loops can make an important contribution to cushioning external shocks.

Moreover, dealing with critical raw materials requires systematic monitoring of availability and risks. Companies must make their dependencies more transparent and develop diversification and safeguarding strategies early in order to respond to volatile geopolitical conditions.

3. »Design for Disassembly«: Circularity starts with design

»Design for Disassembly« describes an approach in which products are designed so that they can be easily dismantled and reused at the end of their life cycle. This approach is a key building block of the circular economy. It is supported by methods such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), digital product passports, and new assessment approaches for circularity.

To keep materials effectively in the loop, products must be designed so that even complex materials can be recovered. This requires design approaches that enable easy disassembly and clearly separable material fractions.

Better separability directly improves the quality of recyclates and enhances their suitability for downstream applications. Therefore, design, material selection, and recycling requirements should be more closely aligned.

At the same time, systematically considering disassembly and recyclability increases the overall availability of secondary raw materials. Supported by digital technologies and clear design principles, this can make an important contribution to safeguarding material loops in the long term.

Methodology: From 75 trends to clear priorities for business and policy

The ORCHESTER Trend Report is based on a semi-automated horizon-scanning approach. AI-supported literature analyses were combined with expert knowledge and structured along the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political). Out of 75 identified trends, 25 were selected as particularly relevant and analyzed in more depth. The result is a prioritization of ten "Game Changer Trends", ten "High Potential Trends", and five trends for Monitoring.

The trends show how technological, economic, and political developments interact. For companies, they offer an important orientation and a structured way to approach key future questions. They help classify uncertainties more effectively, weigh strategic options, and make informed decisions in an increasingly complex environment, especially with regard to material strategies, innovation pathways, and cooperation.

Background: The Fraunhofer Flagship Project ORCHESTER

To ensure a reliable supply of functionally safe materials for the energy transition, the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft acts as the "conductor" in the interplay between industry, associations, policymakers, and research. An interdisciplinary consortium of six Fraunhofer institutes is creating a digital ecosystem for assessing functional safety, optimizing material development, and developing strategies to increase recycling rates.