Press Release 10.11.2011

Competition for rail: A five-year field test of trucks up to 25.25 meters in length and with a weight limit of 44 tonnes will start in January 2012 in several German states. Because these so-called gigaliners are much more efficient than conventional trucks, they pose a threat to key rail freight transport markets. The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and K+P Transport Consultants have investigated how competition could develop between road and rail on behalf of the Community of European Railways and Infrastructure Companies (CER).

The researchers at Fraunhofer ISI examined five European freight transport corridors with a combined length of 5,000 kilometers: Hamburg – Prague, Paris – Barcelona, Rotterdam – Ruhr district of Germany, Ruhr district – northern Italy and Munich – Budapest. Their summary: “As the economic efficiency of road freight transport increases, there will be sharper competition between rail and road“, says Dr. Claus Doll, head of the study at Fraunhofer ISI. “The competitive situation is particularly sensitive for single-wagonload transport and combined road-rail transport“. As well as direct shifts, a subsequent downwards spiral could also result: A declining demand for rail freight transport brings a depletion of supply or increasing prices in its wake so that even more freight transport is shifted back onto the roads.

The study shows much bigger impacts for single-wagonload consignments than for combined transport: In particular, the intensity of the downwards spiral could result in a partial or even a complete market collapse in certain regions or countries. “The introduction of extra-long trucks would exacerbate the discussions about the future of single-wagon consignments, which are already being held in some European countries”, according to Doll. The biggest potential for modal shifts results for the 25.25 meter, 44 tonne trucks. Including the downwards spiral, it was determined that, for 2020, between 22 and 38 percent of tonne-kilometers in single-wagon consignments are shifted from railways back to roads.

But even the future of combined transport will be at least partially dependent on the introduction of the extra-long trucks: This sector will lose market shares since some of the container loading terminals are not able to handle 25.25 meter long trucks and the loading costs become increasingly relevant with increasing cost efficiency of road freight transport. “This effect has to be carefully monitored when considering the huge investment programmes made to establish combined transport in Europe”, stresses Doll. Again for the 44 tonne/25.25 meter trucks, shifts result of between 10 and 14 percent of tonne-kilometers in combined transport for all five corridors examined for 2020.

These reductions in revenue can lead to income losses of 484 million euros annually in combined transport and 504 million euros in single-wagon consignments along all five corridors. In addition, the railway companies will have to reckon with additional investment costs to upgrade container terminals in order to equip these for the longer vehicles. It is difficult to compensate these costs due to the capital-intensive operation of combined transport facilities. 

Apart from their competition with rail, the researchers at Fraunhofer ISI also examined the external costs of the gigaliners: At optimal loads, two extra-long trucks can replace three conventional trucks and reduce transport costs, fuel demand, CO 2 emissions and congestion. But the situation is more complicated than it appears at first sight: With regard to the external environmental, climate, safety and noise costs per transported load tonne, the megatrucks are about ten percent more efficient than conventional trucks, but still four to five times more expensive than rail transport. If trucks with 44 tonnes weight and 25.25 meters length are allowed onto the roads, additional external transport costs of 110 million euros per year will be caused by the identified modal shifts from rail to road along the five corridors. True, there will also be efficiency gains in road freight transport, but most of these will be neutralized by the modal shift away from rail. The European Commission has announced its intention to drastically reduce the negative external effects of transport by 2030 in its Transport White Paper in 2011 – this objective will be even harder to achieve if these long trucks are given general authorization. The introduction of extra-long trucks should therefore be critically reviewed according to the researchers.

The German summary of the study can be downloaded at www.isi.fraunhofer.de/isi-media/docs/de/publikationen/Megatrucks_Kurzfassung.pdf. The full English report is available at www.cer.be.

The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI analyzes the framework conditions for innovations. We explore the short- and long-term developments of innovation processes and the societal impacts of new technologies and services. On this basis, we provide our clients from industry, politics and science with policy recommendations and perspectives for key decisions. Our expertise lies in a broad scientific competence as well as an interdisciplinary and systemic research approach.