Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Project

Raw materials for emerging technologies 2016

(Review and update of study 2009)

 

The German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) has commissioned the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI to update its study of the raw material demand for emerging technologies that was first published in 2009. The objective is to obtain a sound and up-to-date knowledge basis about possible demand developments concerning raw materials for resource-intensive and resource-sensitive key and emerging technologies. The raw material requirements in 2035 for selected emerging technologies are to be determined at the same time.

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The first step was to compile a list of approx. 160 emerging technologies. Emerging technologies are industrial technical capabilities that trigger revolutionary innovations far beyond the borders of individual economic sectors. Ten emerging technologies were selected from this list for which detailed technology analyses were compiled. In addition, 32 technology synopses from the previous project were revised and updated. 2013 was selected as the base year.

One important result of this study is the finding that the demand for specific raw materials will increase significantly due to future technological developments: In particular, the demand for the raw materials lithium, rhenium, terbium and dysprosium could more than double by 2035 compared to today’s (2013) global primary production. The authors of the study also estimate that the expected demand for germanium, cobalt, scandium, tantalum, and neodymium/praseodymium will exceed today’s supply.

Publications

  • Marscheider-Weidemann, F., Langkau, S., Hummen, T., Erdmann, L., Tercero Espinoza, L., Angerer, G., Marwede, M. & Benecke, S. (2016): Summary - Raw materials for emerging technologies 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28: 13 S., Berlin.
  • Marscheider-Weidemann, F., Langkau, S., Hummen, T., Erdmann, L.,Tercero Espinoza, L., Angerer, G., Marwede, M. & Benecke, S. (2016): Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28: 353 S., Berlin.
  • Langkau, S.; Marscheider-Weidemann, F.; Hummen, T.; Marwede, M.; Benecke, S.; Erdmann, L.; Angerer, G. (2016): Ressourcen-Studie aktualisiert. Neue Prognosen für die kommenden 20 Jahre skizzieren den potentiellen Rohstoffbedarf von Schlüssel- und Zukunftstechnologien. In: ReSource, 2/2016, 29. Jg., S. 14-22, Rhombos-Verlag, Berlin.
  • Langkau, S.; Marscheider-Weidemann, F.; Hummen, T.; Marwede, M.; Benecke, S.; Erdmann L.; Angerer, G. (2016): Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien - Highlights aus dem Aktualisierungsprojekt. In: Thomé-Kozmiensky, K.J. & Goldmann, D. (Hrsg.), Recycling und Rohstoffe, Band 9, TK Verlag, Neu-Ruppin.
  • Vortrag beim DERA Rohstoffdialog 2014: www.deutsche-rohstoffagentur.de
  • Vorstudie: Angerer, G.; Erdmann, L.; Handke, V.; Lüllmann, A.; Marscheider-Weidemann, F.; Marwede, M.; & Scharp, M. (2009): Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien. – Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie: 383 S.; Fraunhofer Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI sowie Institut für Zukunftstechnologiebewertung IZT gGmbH. Karlsruhe-Berlin.

Duration

August 2014 - November 2015

Client

  • German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA)
    at the German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR)

Partner

  • Fraunhofer IZM, Berlin