Dr. Michael Krail

Fraunhofer Institute for
Systems and Innovation Research ISI

Researcher

Experience

Dr. Krail studied industrial engineering at the University of Karlsruhe (TH) until 2002 focusing on logistics and marketing. Between 2003 and 2009 he was scientific researcher at the Institute for Economic Policy Research (IWW) at the University of Karlsruhe (TH). His research focused on integrated, system-based assessment of transport and environmental policies on behalf of the European Commission, the Ministries of Education and Research, Transport and Digital Infrastructure and Environment as well as of the German Parliament. He coordinates the scientific advisory of the German Mobility and Fuels Strategy (MFS) and he coordinated the EU FP7 project ASSIST. He contributed among others to the research projects LOTSE, TIPMAC, INSURE, TRIAS, TRANS-TOOLS, IMPACT, Otello, Future of Automobile Industry, iTREN-2030, GHG-TransPoRD, FUTRE, TRIMODE, SET-Nav and REFLEX.

He taught courses in economic assessment, macroeconomic dynamics and supervised several seminars and diploma theses. In 2009 he completed his PhD in economics at IWW on the impacts of income on mobility behaviour. For this purpose he developed and implemented a socioeconomic module and a diffusion model for alternative fuel technologies in the ASTRA model. Since August 2009 he has been working as senior researcher at Fraunhofer ISI.

Work Focus

  • Integrated impact assessment of long-term policies and strategies in the field of transport, climate and technology.

  • Development of System Dynamics models (ASTRA, INSURE) for analysis on regional, national and European level.

  • Techno-economic analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation technologies in road transport.

  • Analysis of impacts of autonomous driving.

  • Focus on the field of socioeconomic systems and the implication of dynamics on transport, climate and technology.

  • Wider economic impacts of transport and energy policies.

Publications (selection)

Books

Krail M (2009): "System-Based Analysis of Income Distribution Impacts on Mobility Behaviour", Dissertation at the University of Karlsruhe (TH), Nomos Verlag, Baden-Baden, Germany.

Essays

Krail M. (2016): "Measures to promote the diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles in EU27". In: André M., Samaras Z. (Eds.): Energy and Environment – Research for Innovative Transport Sets. Volume 1. Pp. 155-171. ISTE Ltd., John Wiley & Sons Inc., ISBN 978-1-78630-026-3.

Krail M. (2013): "CO2-Reduktionspotenziale bei Pkw". In: Jochem P. (Eds.) a. o.: Alternative Antriebskonzepte bei sich wandelnden Mobilitätsstilen. Karlsruhe: KIT Scientific Publishing 2013, pp. 147-163.

Breun P., Comes T., Fröhling M., Hiete M., Ilsen R., Krail M., Lützkendorf T., Schultmann F., Stengel J., Unholzer M. (2012): "National Integrated Assessment Modelling zur Bewertung umweltpolitischer Instrumente: Entwicklung des otello-Modellsystems und dessen Anwendung auf die BRD", KIT Scientific Publishing, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Krail M., Schade W. (2011): "Technological Potential for CO2 Emission Reductions of Passenger Cars". In: Rothengatter W. (Eds.) a. o.: Transport Moving to Climate Intelligence: New Chances for Controlling Climate Impacts of Transport after the Economic Crisis. New York (a. o.): Springer Science+Business Media, 2011, pp. 271-290. 

Journal articles

Ringel M., Schlomann B., Krail M., Rohde C. (2016): "Towards a green economy in Germany? The role of energy efficiency policies". In: Applied Energy, Vol. 179, pp. 1293-1303.

Comes T., Doll C., Fröhling M., Hiete M., Ilsen R., Krail M., Lützkendorf T., Schultmann F., Stengel J., Unholzer M. (2010): "Otello – a national integrated assessment model for Germany". In: Ökologisches Wirtschaften, 25 (2010) 2, pp. 34-37. 

Conference papers

Schlomann B., Eichhammer W., Kranzl L., Krail M., Fleiter T., Braungardt S., Reuter M. (2015): "Evaluating the current EU energy efficiency policy framework and its impact until 2020 and 2030". Peer-reviewed paper. ECEEE Proceedings 2015 Summer Study.

Krail M., Schade W. (2014): "Measures to promote the diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles in EU27". Proceedings of the 5th Transport Research Arena (TRA), Paris, France.

Kiel J., Maurer H., Dennisen T., Kritzinger S., Krail M., Schade W., Fiorello D., Fermi F. (2014): "Assessment of social and economic impacts of transport policy". Proceedings of the 5th Transport Research Arena (TRA), Paris, France.

Schade W., Krail M., Kühn A. (2014): "New mobility concepts: Myth or emerging reality?". Proceedings of the 5th Transport Research Arena (TRA), Paris, France.

Schade W., Krail M. (2014): "GHG Mitigation Strategy in the European Transport Sector". Proceedings of the 5th Transport Research Arena (TRA), Paris, France.

Kühn A., Krail M. (2013): "Dynamic demand modeling of freight fleets". Proceedings of the 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2013, Cambridge MA, USA. ISBN 978-1-935056-12-06.

Krail M., Schade W. (2012): "Reducing the Climate Impact of Transport – Technologies and Policies for Road Transport". Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St. Gallen, Switzerland. ISBN 978-1-935056-09-6.

Kühn A., Krail M. (2012): "The Potential of Alternative Fuel Technologies and of Efficiency Technolgies for Heavy Goods Vehicles". Paper presented at 12th International Symposium on Heavy Vehicle Transport Technology HVTT12, Stockholm, Sweden.

Krail M., Schade W. (2010): "The potential of alternative fuel cars for achieving CO2 reduction targets in EU27". Paper ID: 01812, Topic F4-Transport and Climate Change, Selected Proceedings of the 12th World Conference on Transport Research Society, Lisbon, Portugal. ISBN 978-989-96986-1-1.

Krail M., Schade W. (2010): "Technological Potential for CO2 Emission Reductions of Passenger Cars". 10. International Conference on Energy and Automotive Technologies (ICAT), Istanbul, Turkey.

Doll C., Krail M., Fröhling M., Hiete M. (2010): "Measures and instruments for emission reduction in transport – findings from the otello project". Paper ID 01264, Topic F6-Environmentally Sustainable Transport, Selected Proceedings of the 12th World Conference on Transport Research Society, Lisbon, Portugal. ISBN 978-989-96986-1-1.

Kühn A., Krail M. (2010): "System–based analysis of diffusion of alternative drive and fuels for trucks". Paper ID 01814, Topic F4-Transport and Climate Change, Selected Proceedings of the 12th World Conference on Transport Research Society, Lisbon, Portugal. ISBN 978-989-96986-1-1.

Kraft M., Krail M., Szimba E. (2010): "A liaison between a system dynamics model and a network-based transport model – advantages from a holistic project assessment and challenges". Paper ID 02336, Topic D1-Travel Demand Modelling, General Proceedings of the 12th World Conference on Transport Research Society, Lisbon, Portugal. ISBN 978-989-96986-0-4.

Comes T., Doll C., Fröhling M., Hiete M., Ilsen R., Krail M., Lützkendorf T., Schultmann F., Stengel J., Unholzer M. (2010): "Supporting Clean Air Policy in Germany – the Integrated Assessment Model otello". In: Proceedings of International Society for Ecological Economics Conference ISEE 2010.

Schade W., Helfrich N., Krail M., Fiorello D., Fermi F., Schade B. (2008): "Scenarios, Policies and Impacts for the Linked Transport and Energy Systems - Results of the European TRIAS Project". Paper presented at the TRA 2008 - Transport Research Arena Europe, Ljubljana, Slovenia. 

Krail M., Scholz A. (2007): "Regional and national socioeconomic impact assessment of the Messina Bridge megaproject". In: Proceedings of the 11th World Conference on Transport Research 2007 (WCTR 2007), Berkeley, USA.

Krail M., Schade W. (2007): "Regional Transport Modelling - A generic model for socio-economic and environmental analysis of European regions focusing on regional passenger and freight transport". In: Proceedings of the 11th World Conference on Transport Research 2007 (WCTR 2007), Berkeley, USA.

Schade W., Krail M. (2006): "Modelling and calibration of large scale system dynamics models: the case of the ASTRA model". Paper presented at the 24th International conference of the System Dynamics Society 2006, Nijmegenn, The Netherlands.

Krail M., Schade W. (2005): "Quantification of Climate Policy Scenarios for long-term Trends in Transport". Paper presented at the 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2005, Boston, USA.

Schade W., Krail M. (2004): "Modelling the feed-backs between trade and transport". Paper presented at the 10th World Conference on Transport Research 2004 (WCTR 2004), Istanbul, Turkey.

Krail M., Schade W. (2004): "Quantification of Technological Scenarios for long-term Trends in Transport". Paper presented at the 10th World Conference on Transport Research 2004 (WCTR 2004), Istanbul, Turkey. 

Project reports

Krail M., Fleiter T., Steinbach J., Hartner M., Kranzl L. (2016): "Mapping and analyses of the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables) - economic analysis". Report of the study on behalf of DG ENER, European Commission. Brussels, Belgium.

Schade W., Krail M., Hartwig J., Walther C., Sutter D., Killer M., Maibach M., Gomez J., Hitscherich K. (2015): Cost of non-completion of the TEN-T. Final report of the study on behalf of DG MOVE, European Commission. Brussels, Belgium.

Aggelakakis A., Bernandino J., Boile M., Christidis P., Condeco A., Krail M., Papanikolaou A., Reichenbach M., Schippl J. (2015): "The Future of the Transport Industry". Technical Report of European Commission – JRC IPTS. Seville, Spain.

Braungardt S., Eichhammer W., Elsland R., Fleiter T., Klobasa M., Krail M., Pfluger B., Reuter M., Schlomann B., Sensfuss F., Tariq S., Kranzl L., Dovidio S., Gentili P. (2014): "Study evaluating the current energy efficiency policy framework in the EU and providing orientation on policy options for realising the cost-effective energyefficiency/ saving potential until 2020 and beyond". Final Report of study on behalf of DG ENER. Karlsruhe, Germany.

Aggelakakis A., Bernandino J., Boile M., Christidis P., Condeco A., Krail M., Papanikolaou A., Reichenbach M., Schippl J. (2014): "Future prospects on transport evolution and innovation challenges for the competitiveness of Europe”. Final report of FUTRE. Project co-funded by European Commission 7th RTD Programme. Thessaloniki, Greece.

Reichenbach M., Schippl J., Puhe M., Edelmann M., Krail M., Mahrscheider-Weidemann F., Boile M., Papanikolaou A. (2014): "Long-term impacts of the supply side on the competitiveness of the European transport industry”. Deliverable D4.3 of FUTRE. Project co-funded by European Commission 7th RTD Programme. Karlsruhe, Germany.

Krail M., Schade W. (2014): ASSIST Final Report - Summary of the Project Approach and Findings: Assessing the social and economic impacts of past and future sustainable transport policy in Europe. ASSIST Deliverable D8.3. Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Condeco A., Vieira J., Krail M., Reichenbach M., Schippl J. (2013): "The European innovation systems in transport and the current state of the com-petitiveness of the EU transport sector”. Deliverable D2.1 of FUTRE. Project co-funded by European Commission 7th RTD Programme. Seville, Spain.

Schade W., Krail M. (2012): "Aligned R&D and transport policy to meet EU GHG reduction targets". Final Report. Deliverable D7.1 of GHG-TransPoRD (Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of transport beyond 2020: linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets). Project co-funded by European Commission 7th RTD Programme. Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Fiorello D., Schade W., Akkermans L., Krail M., Schade B., Shepherd S. (2012): "Results of the techno-economic analysis of the R&D and transport policy packages for the time horizons 2020 and 2050". Deliverable D4.1 of GHG-TransPoRD: Project co-funded by European Commission 7th RTD Programme. TRT Trasporti e Territorio SRL, Milan, Italy.

Schade W., Akkermans L., Fiorello D., Jopson A., Köhler J., Krail M., Moizo A., Schade B., Shepherd S., Sievers L., Tercero L., van Herle K., Weiss C., Wiesenthal T. (2011): "Bottom-up quantifications of selected measures to reduce GHG emissions of transport for the time horizons 2020 and 2050: Cost assessment of GHG mitigation measures of transport". Deliverable D3.1 of GHG-TransPoRD (Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of transport beyond 2020: linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets). Project co-founded by European Commission 7th RTD Programme. Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Lehr U., Mönnig A., Wolter M., Lutz C., Krail M., Schade W. (2011): "Die Modelle ASTRA und PANTA RHEI zur Abschätzung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Instrumente - ein Vergleich". GWS Discussion Paper 11/4, Osnabruck, Germany.

Schade W., Peters A., Doll C., Klug S., Köhler J., Krail M. (2011): "VIVER – Vision für nachhaltigen Verkehr in Deutschland". Fraunhofer ISI Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation, No. S 3/2011. Karlsruhe, Germany.

Breun P., Comes T., Doll C., Fröhling M., Hiete M., Ilsen R., Krail M., Lützkendorf T., Schultmann F., Stengel J., Unholzer M. (2011): "otello - Ein Nationales Integriertes Assessment Modell". Final report of the otello project on behalf of the German Ministry of Education and Research. Karlsruhe, Germany.

Akkermans L., Vanherle K., Moizo A., Raganato P., Schade B., Leduc G., Wiesenthal T., Shepherd S., Tight M., Guehnemann A., Krail M., Schade W. (2010): "Ranking of measures to reduce GHG emissions of transport: reduction potentials and qualification of feasibility". Deliverable D2.1 of GHG-TransPoRD: Project co-funded by the European Commission 7th RTD Programme. Transport & Mobility Leuven, Belgium.

Schade W., Krail M. (2010): iTREN-2030: "Experiences and results for integrated technology, energy and transport policy assessment". Final Report and Deliverable 6 of iTREN-2030 (Integrated transport and energy baseline until 2030). Project co-funded by the European Commission 6th RTD Programme. Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Schade W., Krail M., Fiorello D., Helfrich N., Köhler J., Kraft M., Maurer H., Meijeren J., Newton S., Purwan-to J., Schade B., Szimba E. (2010): "The iTREN-2030 Integrated Scenario until 2030". Deliverable 5 of iTREN-2030 (Integrated transport and energy baseline until 2030). Project co-funded by the European Commission 6th RTD Programme. Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Newton S., Szimba E., van Meijeren J., Kraft M., Schröder S., Krail M., van Herbruggen B., Purwanto J., Maurer H., et al. (2009): "Preparing TRANSTOOLS and TREMOVE for linkage with long-term energy and economic models"". Deliverable D2 of the iTREN-2030 (Integrated transport and energy baseline until 2030) project. Co-funded by the European Commission 6th RTD Programm. Zoetermeer, The Netherlands.

Burgess A., Chen TM, Snelder M., Schneekloth N., Korzhenevych A., Szimba E., Kraft M., Krail M., Nielsen O., Hansen C., Martino A., Fiorello D., Christidis R. (2008): "Final Report TRANS-TOOLS (TOOLS for TRansport forecasting And Scenario testing)". Deliverable 6, co-funded by the European Commission 6th RTD Programme. TNO Inro, Delft, The Netherlands.

Schade W., Helfrich N., Wietschel M., Krail M., Scholz A., Kraft M., Fiorello D., Fermi F., Martino A., Schade B., Purwanto J., Wiesenthal T., Christidis P. (2008): "Alternative Pathways for Transport, Technology and Energy to promote sustainability in the EU". Deliverable 4 of the TRIAS project (Sustainability Impact Assessment of Strategies Integrating Transport, Technology and Energy Scenarios) on behalf of the European Commission, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Krail M., Schade W., Fiorello D., Fermi F., Martino A., Christidis P., Schade B., Purwanto J., Helfrich N., Scholz A., Kraft M. (2007): "Outlook for Global Transport and Energy Demand". Deliverable 3 of the TRIAS project (Sustainability Impact Assessment of Strategies Integrating Transport, Technology and Energy Scenarios) on behalf of the European Commission, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Schade W., Krail M., Schade B., Leduc G., Zeijl A. (2007): "Structure, Implementation and Guidelines of System Model (SMO) and its application in Limburg and Cantabria cases". Deliverable D25 of the INSURE project (A flexible frame-work for indicators for sustainability in regions using system dynamics modelling) on behalf of the European Commission, Karlsruhe, Germany.

Krail M., Schade W., Martino A., Fiorello D. (2004): "Quantification of technological scenarios for long-term trends in transport", Final report of the LOTSE  project on behalf of the European Commssion, Karlsruhe, Germany.