System- und Innovationsforschung ISI
In December 2015,
Mexico issued the new Energy Transition Law (Ley de Transición Energética),
which provides a new regulatory framework that allows all energy sector participants
to coordinate long-term efforts to reduce polluting emissions.
In this context, Fraunhofer-ISI was mandated by GIZ-Mexico and CONUEE to analyze the future development regarding energy requirements of final demand sectors industry, transportation, residential, commercial, non-energy and agricultural. Further, the modeling exercise provided estimates of energy efficiency saving potentials across all final demand sectors. Based on an in-depth study of saving potentials in the European Union, potentials that are achievable for different type of end-uses at a detailed level were identified in the Mexican context.
The project pursued four main objectives:
The methodology combines a top-down, econometric approach, with a detailed
bottom-up sector modeling, in order to compensate the lack of data for a detailed
bottom-up analysis. The top-down approach consists in deriving historical relationship
between the final energy demand as well as socio-economic indicators. It´s
output are econometric equations, which relate the total final energy
consumption of the sectors industry, transport, residential, commercial,
agricultural to the GDP development, as well as the crude oil price
development. These equations are used to forecast the future energy development
in-line with the future economic growth and oil-price development as determined
in the Mexican´s government official forecasts. Next
to the econometric approach, the residential, industrial and transport sector
were modeled at a sub-sectoral level, allowing analyzing the drivers and structure
of energy consumption with a higher degree of detail.
BAU: These future energy requirements are determined in-line with the future economic growth and oil-price development as defined by the Development Program of the National Electric System by SENER. In particular, SENER expects a rapidly expanding economy, growing at an average yearly rate of 4.12%. Aligned with this expectation, SENER expects a quickly recovery of the oil price reaching 80 USD per barrel in 2018 and heading towards 120 USD per barrel in 2030. As a result, the final energy demand will grow considerably among all sectors, from about 5000 PJ in 2014 to just below 8000 PJ in the 2030. The transport sector is the highest contributor in terms of its total share within final energy demand (44% in 2014, 52% in 2030, while also showing the highest growth rate of all sectors), followed by the industrial sector (31% share in 2014, 30% in 2030).
Moderate growth: Next to the
BAU-scenario and in light of the uncertainty of key assumptions such as the
future economic growth and the crude oil price development, a sensitivity
analysis was carried out. Of particular relevance is the energy demand calculation
using a moderate economic growth of 2% GDP growth per year, roughly corresponding
to the observed historical growth between 2000-2014 and hence constituting a
more realistic future development: The results show that energy demand would
grow more moderately, by a total of 23% in 2030 as compared to 2014 levels, corresponding
to a total final energy demand of approximately 6000 PJ in 2030.
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