Projekt

Fraunhofer-Institut für
System- und Innovationsforschung ISI

Development of the 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2017

Background

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established in 1967 with the aim to enhance and strengthen economic cooperation, social progress and cultural development, thereby creating a basis towards facing future challenges as a prosperous and peaceful community.

Fraunhofer-ISI assisted the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) in the task of developing the 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook, as a continuation of four previous outlooks published in 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2015. This outlook presents three scenarios of energy demand and supply for the region into 2040:

  • A Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario, which reflects the continuous trend of the developments from the past.

  • AMS Targets Scenario (ATS); target-based scenario assuming that the most recently issued national targets on energy efficiency and renewable energy of each of the ten ASEAN Member States (AMS) are reached.

  • ASEAN Progressive Scenario (APS); target-based scenario assuming that regional targets defined in APAEC 2016-2025 are reached. It has a higher ambition level in EE and RE for each AMS as opposed to the ATS.

Goal

The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook not only aims to provide policy makers and the energy community with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the region up to the year 2040, but also to strongly involve all ASEAN Member States in the process. The outlook monitors the implementation of the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025, and compliments it by deriving strategies within ASEAN to address future energy challenges. The APAEC 2016-2025 targets aspire to achieve a  23% share of renewable energy in the primary energy mix by 2025, as well as a reduction of energy intensity of 20% by 2020 and 30% in 2025 as compared to 2005 levels. The exact definition of the target is to be found in the APAEC 2016-2025 official document.

Methodology

AEO5 was developed by combining a top-down, statistical approach for the final energy demand, with a bottom-up technology specific modeling in the transformation sectors. To project the final energy demand, regression analysis was applied by using econometric software, in order to compute the relationship between the sectoral final energy demand and explanatory socio-economic variables. The analysis yielded in a set of sectoral energy consumption equations for every country, each one relating the energy consumption of a particular sector with the corresponding socio-economic variables. Furthermore, the technology specific parameters of the transformation sector (power sector, refineries) were defined, resulting in the corresponding future primary energy requirements.

Findings

The Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) will rise from 427 Mtoe in 2015 to 1,046 Mtoe (BAU), 856 Mtoe (ATS),  and 771 Mtoe (APS) in 2040. The increase is driven by the industrial, transportation and residential sectors. These sectors provide opportunities for potential energy savings and efficiency gains. Under the AMS Targets Scenario (ATS) and ASEAN Progressive Scenario (APS), reaching the most recent nationally issued energy efficiency targets lead to substantial savings in TFEC of 18.2% and 26.3% respectively in 2040, as compared to BAU.

The Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) under the Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU) is expected to increase by a factor of 2.3 as compared to 2015 levels, reaching 1,450 Mtoe by 2040. Under the AMS Targets Scenario (ATS) and ASEAN Progressive Scenario (APS), the energy efficiency and renewable energy targets lead to savings in TPES of 13.9% and 22.6% respectively in 2040, as compared to BAU.

Under BAU, power capacity in 2040 is projected to increase three-fold to 629 GW to cope with the strongly rising electricity demand. However, enhanced efficiency can lower installed capacity requirements substantially avoiding additional capacity requirements of 42 GW under ATS and 50 GW under APS.

The 5th ASEAN Energy Outlook shows that ASEAN is well-placed to reach the target of reducing the energy intensity (EI). The medium term (2020) component is reached in all scenarios, exceeding the target by 5% in BAU, 8% in ATS and 9% in APS. In the long-term (2025) component, EI is reduced by 29% in 2025 in BAU, thereby missing the target with a gap of 1%. However, it exceeds by 5% and 8% in ATS and APS, respectively.

Increasing the target of RE to 23% by 2025 in the primary energy mix will require stronger efforts by AMS than currently foreseen. The BAU scenario projects a share of 13% renewable energy in the primary energy mix, ATS reaches 17.5%, while APS (by conception) reaches the 23% share by 2025.

During the outlook period, ASEAN as a region remains a net exporter of coal, mostly attributed to Indonesia and Vietnam. Reaching EE and RE targets in ATS and APS leads to substantially reduced domestic demand, making more coal available for exports.

Total CO2 emissions from the energy sector (i.e. excluding land use changes) will increase in the years ahead, from 1,446 Mt CO2eq in 2015 to reach 3,460 Mt CO2eq in BAU by 2040. APS is expected to limit the growth to only 2,168 Mt CO2eq in 2040.

© 2018 Fraunhofer ISI